| They who operate at
the highest levels in the field of Social Security gathered
in Guatemala, on the occasion of the XXV General Assembly
of the Inter-American Conference on Social Security
to discuss the effect of the crisis. In doing so, they
re-affirmed that Social Security plays an important
role in fighting poverty, in providing a buffer against
these types of crises and is an 'essential element in
overcoming the current crisis, and in preventing and
abating greater crises".
In other words, we
are well placed to help stimulate faltering economies.
Indeed, that the world has been gripped by depression
or recession (take your pick) is open knowledge. That
St Kitts & Nevis is suffering from the financial
crunch is another fact. But there are some optimists
who, having looked at the data, argue that we are
once again emerging out of the darkness towards the
light. And while I agree that one swallow does not
make a summer, the fact is that signs are emerging
within the economy that strengthens the argument of
the optimists.
In this commentary,
I will present four proverbial swallows: you determine
whether the "summer of content" has arrived.
Are we in recovery, recuperation or still in stagnation?
Businesses were still hiring. Up to the end of 2009,
there were 1,466 persons who were first time registrants
with the institution. Since one has to be employed
in order to register, and since there is no need to
register as one moves from job to job, then it is
fair to assume then that these were persons who have
successfully entered the workforce for the first time.
This is apart from the 207 persons who registered
as self employed.
Of particular interest
to Social Security is that this achievement is less
than 6% down on last year's, and was better than that
of 2007 by over 2%. The stimulus for such employment
activity comes through the Construction industry Government
& statutory bodies, the small business sector,
the hospitality and the manufacturing sectors. We
noted that 243 new businesses registered and 59 re-started
activity. The 177 that closed shop still leaves us
in the black, with a net gain of 125 businesses. The
Construction industry was again at the mix of business
activity.
It is fair to say
that Construction has become a major pillar of our
society. It would be useful to determine the value
of these new buildings that are being erected. There
is further good news. Young people - school leavers,
aged 19 and under - are finding work; they represent
43.5% of the hiring in the year; and this time, with
an almost even split between young men and young women.
To the end of December 2009, we have collected contributions
of close to EC$70 million, of which a little under
EC$ 1million came from the hands of the self employed.
When one considers
that collections are 10% & 11% of wages up to
EC$6,500 per month, then we begin to appreciate that
wages alone was upwards of EC$590 million, excluding
the bonus that was paid in December. Undoubtedly,
there is money circulating in the land! There is one
anomaly: despite the significance of the construction
industry, it yielded less than 9% of all collections
for the year.
This suggests that
construction workers are still short-changing themselves!
Has the attitude of workers become any better during
the crisis? If we use absence from work as a measure
of work attitude, then there may be hope. Consider
this: between January and December, there were 10,715
absences due to sickness that qualified for leave
from work of 3 or more days; a decrease by 67 cases
over the last year. Maybe it is just that less people
are employed, but maybe job holders are less inclined
to play 'hooky'!
Another measure of
the above is the number of productive days lost due
to illness and employment injury (and pregnancy too,
but pregnancy is encouraging to Social Security).
This year, over 80,000 production days were lost,
excluding pregnant days, and it declined each quarter.
It is still much too high, but hopefully a pattern
is emerging that will continue. The fourth parameter
which we hope is an indication of recovery is the
return on investments.
We have recovered,
in 2009, whatever ground was lost earlier in the immediate
aftermath of the financial crisis, and in fact have
had a 9% better performance than we had budgeted for.
You already know who we invested in most for 2009.
Meanwhile, the buoyancy of the economy was certainly
helped by the re-infusion of approximately $40 million
in benefit payments of all kinds for 2009. This is
a fair measure of just how much Social Security is
doing to keep the economy buoyant while trying to
stimulate growth.2010 will test our mettle. It will
be tough going. But when the going gets tough, that's
when the tough get going.
Will we be tough enough?
Let us all pray for strength!
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