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| Forecasters Predict
Above Average 2010 Hurricane Season |
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St. Kitts and Nevis and other Caribbean
countries can expect an above-average 2010 Atlantic
hurricane with a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane
affecting the region, respected United States forecasters
have said.
The team from Colorado State University is predicting
as many as eight hurricanes, four of which will become
major weather systems with winds in excess of 111 miles
per hour, to form over the Atlantic Ocean during the
June 1 to November 30 hurricane season. In all, it said
that there would be up to 15 named storms.
CMC reports, the lead forecaster on the university's
hurricane forecast team, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, as saying
that the prediction was based on the premise that El
Nino conditions continue until the summer.
"We expect current moderate El Nino conditions
to transition to neutral conditions by this year's hurricane
season," Dr. Klotzbach said in a statement.
"The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected
anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures,
will lead to favourable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions
for hurricane formation and intensification," he
added.
The team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010
will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison,
2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about
70 percent of the average season.
The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting
at Colorado State, led by Dr. William Gray.
The hurricane forecast team said it makes its predictions
based on 58 years of historical data.
"While patterns may change before the start of
hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant
concern for an above-average season," Dr. Gray
said.
Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes
and 2.3 major hurricanes per year, the team said.
The Colorado State University team said it will issue
forecast updates on June 2 and August 4.
Head of the OECS Secretariat's Environmental and Sustainable
Development Unit based in St. Lucia Mr. Keith Nichols,
said, "Every country has to take responsibility.
Then again the disaster preparedness offices, the NEMOS
or the equivalent in other countries need to advance
the preparations and get the various disaster committees
in place and working to reduce risk around our properties
[and] our communities," he said.
Mr. Nichols said the expectation of an above average
hurricane season was never comforting news to the region
given its history over the last three decades with hurricanes.
"The hurricane season which starts officially starts
on June 1st is just around the corner. If we are expecting
an above average hurricane season, there is always a
potential that we will be hit by a hurricane.
"We can't always feel that we have been hit a touch
in the last few years, so we will escape this time.
We are never sure of that and we always need to be prepared.
We need to be very, very vigilant and to remove the
threats around our properties," he said.
Mr. Nichols said the OECS Secretariat had been involved
in an ongoing risk reduction programme in the region
and had been pursuing options at building resilience
to hurricanes or to disasters overall but moreso hurricanes.
"We of course have tremendous experience of lost
buildings in this Federation and other countries which
suffer loss of life, property in recent times and we
need to be on our guard.
"There is a lot of talk about retrofitting houses,
buildings putting in hurricane roof straps to keep roofs
in place. We need to be vigilant [and] to ensure that
our properties are clear of potential threats and hazards.
Trees are also a potential threat, limbs and lose material
around," he said.
Minister responsible for the Environment on Nevis Hon.
Carlisle Powell said Nevis could ill afford the effects
of a hurricane.
"Nevis certainly can't afford to be hit by a hurricane.
We have suffered enough recently by hurricanes and we
are hopeful that even though we imagine and we expect
that we will get an above average hurricane season,
we are hopeful that the Professor Grays are wrong this
time around and that we are spared any direct hit by
a hurricane," he said.
However, the Minister noted that he remained very optimistic
but reiterated the need for Nevisians to prepared early
rather than wait for the last moment to make sure that
secured their property.
"We still ask people to know that there is a hurricane
season which is approaching, while we hope for the best
prepare for the worst," he said. |
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