THE ANTIGUA MET OFFICE AND ST. KITTS MET OFFICE, ARE PAYING VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS OF 8 A.M. THIS MORNING, IT HAD A 50% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE) IN 48 HOURS AND A 60% CHANCE IN FIVE DAYS. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAVE NOW BECOME A CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN.

ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US AS NO MORE THAN A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OR STRONG TROPICAL WAVE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING US AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HENCE, RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM UNTIL IT IS OUT OF OUR AREA.

THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY WET WEATHER ACROSS ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THE ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 25 TO 75 MM OR 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. HENCE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH PEAK HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY OF AROUND 2.7 METRES OF 9 FEET. HENCE, SMALL CRAFT AND SEA-BATHER WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME, NO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT FORECAST THIS EVENING WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS AND ANY UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

RESPECTFULLY YOURS

  1. KITTS MET SERVICES