In our October 17 edition of the Observer we stated, “The Observer thinks that the Saudis agreed not to cut production so that the price of oil will continue to fall so that Russia, Iran and Venezuela could be brought to their knees so that the United States could force them into submission.” News reporters and commentators are saying the same thing now. From time to time we comment on world affairs and often share our opinion. We were not surprised by the announcements by President Obama and Castro that Cuba and the United States are working to normalize their relationship. Unlike others we anticipate a swift removal of the embargo. Market forces will dictate and the US congress will move quickly. Cuba is sitting on or close to between 4.6 to 20 billion barrels of oil depending on whether you use United States or Cuban figures. The Chinese and Venezuelan have been helping Cuba trying to find the large oil deposits and recently Russian president Vladimir Putin pledged Russia’s help with Cuban oil exploits. Cuba currently needs 200,000 barrels of oil per day for local consumption. It produces only 55,000 barrels per day from its own wells and imports about 150,000 barrels per day from Venezuela. With modernization of its current wells it could perhaps produce enough for local consumption and a little for export. US oil giants contribute heavily to Republicans and the Republicans will control congress come January. These oil giants want a piece of Cuba’s oil industry. They will pressure their benefactors to lift the embargo at the same time as they negotiate with the Cuban government behind the scene for a piece of the Cuban oil industry, regardless of how small it is; in exchange, of course, for them bringing their technology to help find the potential huge Cuban oil fields. This we anticipate happening about the third quarter of 2015. One might ask, why would all of this be important in a world where oil prices are steadily sliding. The answer- the sliding will stop and oil price will stabilize around $85 per barrel. When? As soon as the United States and Russia need to cooperate on something. It might be North Korea. Kim Jong Un is not going to take the last punch in this Internet vandalism war. He will retaliate for Washington shutting him down and it could escalate and it might be Russia that is able to use its good offices to bring peace. That done, the US will tell the Saudis to cut production and the prices will climb and stabilize around $85. By that time Venezuela would have already collapsed and Iran brought to its knees. Both Iran and Venezuela will have to cut one third from their budgets to get them balanced. US advisors are divided about trying to bring down Russia. Most prefer a stable Russia. In the long run Russia, being the largest country in the world, will be able to stabilize on $85 per barrel of crude if it diversifies its economy and begins utilizing its richness in minerals. With its more that 17 million square kilometers, it is 1/8 of the inhabited space in the world. With China lending Russia a couple of hundred billions of the more that 3 trillion that the Chinese have in reserve, Russia might be ok.