St. Kitts, Nevis on hurricane super-highway to U.S. mainland
By Staff Writer
St. Kitts and Nevis residents should prepare now for from one to four major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes during the June 1 to November 30 hurricane season, according to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre.
During the 2016 hurricane season NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 percent chance, there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Included in today’s outlook is Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.
“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” Bell explained. “However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”
Predicting the weather and especially hurricanes is a tough job. NOAA uses a variety of statistics from former years and compares them with the latest conditions to help look ahead at what the 2016 hurricane season might bring. As part of the effort better accuracy and to provide advance warning of hurricane activity, NOAA has dramatically upgraded its tracking system with a supercomputer upgrade and upgraded its Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF).
“Forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult,” Bell said.
The St. Kitts and Nevis government and residents should prepare now for the possibility of a hurricane hitting the islands at any time. A large percentage of the hurricanes that form off the western coast of Africa seem to follow what almost seems like a highway to the Caribbean, pass over the islands, and then strengthen as they turn either toward Mexico or the U.S. mainland.
“The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult,” Bell said.
In an effort to upgrade the accuracy of its predictions, in January NOAA made a several major upgrades to its supercomputers to increase their ability to improve hurricane forecast models.
Low-activity era could last 25 years
Bell explained there is uncertainty about whether the high activity era of Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995, has ended. This high-activity era has been associated with an ocean temperature pattern called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO, marked by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a stronger West African monsoon. However, during the last three years weaker hurricane seasons have been accompanied by a shift toward the cool AMO phase, marked by cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a weaker West African monsoon. If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, it could usher in a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and this period may already have begun. High- and low-activity eras typically last 25 to 40 years.
In addition, El Niño is dissipating. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre is forecasting a 70 percent chance that La Niña – which favours more hurricane activity – will be present during the peak months of hurricane season, August through October. However, current model predictions show uncertainty as to how strong La Niña and its impacts will be.
Despite the challenging seasonal prediction, NOAA is poised to deliver actionable environmental intelligence during the hurricane season with more accuracy to help save lives and livelihoods.
Important upgrades completed
“This is a banner year for NOAA and the National Weather Service – As our Hurricane Forecast Improvement program turns five, we’re on target with our five-year goal to improve track and intensity forecasts by 20 percent each,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D. “Building on a successful supercomputer upgrade in January, we’re adding unprecedented new capabilities to our hurricane forecast models – investing in science and technology infusion to bring more accuracy to hurricane forecasts in 2016.”
Sullivan said NOAA’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System is now running at record speed, with the capacity to process and analyse earth observations at quadrillions of calculations per second to support weather, water and climate forecast models. She said this investment will advance the field of meteorology and improve global forecasts.
The computers — called Luna and Surge — are located at computing centres in Reston, Virginia and Orlando, Florida. They are now running at 2.89 petaflops each for a new total of 5.78 petaflops of operational computing capacity, up from 776 teraflops of processing power last year.
Tidal wave of data
“This significant investment in our operational supercomputers equips us to handle the tidal wave of data that new observing platforms will generate and allows us to push our science and operations into exciting new territory,” said Sullivan.
“The faster runs and better spatial and temporal resolution that Luna and Surge provide will allow NOAA to improve our environmental intelligence dramatically, giving the public faster and better predictions of weather, water and climate change.”
Sullivan said the ultimate goal of investment in operational and research supercomputing capacity is to build resilient communities by arming people with reliable environmental intelligence to make good decisions.
The increase in supercomputing strength will allow NOAA to roll out a series operational model upgrades throughout 2016. The most important impact of this computing power will be to increase the accuracy of their predictions about hurricane activity. For example:
- HWRF upgrades will mark the first time NOAA models have had direct connections between the air, ocean and waves to improve forecasts of hurricane tracks and intensity. This upgrade will increase the number of storms NOAA can forecast for at any given time to 8.
- Upgrades to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) will help meteorologists predict the amount, timing and type of precipitation in winter storms and the timing location and structure severe thunderstorms.
- In the fall, NOAA will launch GOES-R, a next generation weather satellite that will scan the Earth five times faster, with a resolution four times greater than ever before, to produce much sharper images of hurricanes and other severe weather.
- Implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic Modelling System (WRF-Hydro) will expand the National Weather Service’s current water quantity forecasts at 3,600 locations to forecasts of flow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, runoff and other parameters for 2.67 million river and stream locations across the country, representing a 700-fold increase in spatial density. This new information, provided nationally at the neighbourhood scale, will enable forecasters to more accurately predict droughts and floods, and better support water resources decisions.
The increase in supercomputing capacity comes via a $44.5 million investment using NOAA’s operational high performance computing contract with IBM, $25 million of which was provided through the U.S. Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 related to the consequences of Hurricane Sandy. Cray Inc., headquartered in Seattle, serves as a subcontractor for IBM providing the new systems to NOAA.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.
Other improvements planned in late summer
Coming online later this season are major new investments to further improve NOAA’s ability to monitor hurricanes as they form and provide more timely and accurate warnings for their impacts. NOAA’s new National Water Model – set to launch later this summer – will provide hourly water forecasts for 700 times more locations than our current flood forecast system, greatly enhancing our ability to forecast inland flooding from tropical systems. In the fall, NOAA will launch GOES-R, a next generation weather satellite that will scan the Earth five times faster, with a resolution four times greater than ever before, to produce much sharper images of hurricanes and other severe weather.
NOAA works with a number of partners in the private and public sectors to ensure communities and businesses have the information they need to act well ahead of a land-falling hurricane.
NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.
NOAA also issued its outlook for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins. The central Pacific hurricane outlook calls for equal 40 percent chance of a near-normal or above-normal season with 4-7 tropical cyclones likely. The eastern Pacific hurricane outlook calls for a 40 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. That outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 13-20 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes.
