The Peril Of Beryl: At Least 7 Dead And Jamaica Could Be In Line For Direct Hit.

Image: NOAA. The graphic shows expected arrival times for Hurricane Beryl. The biggest concern is Jamaica, which could yet sustain a direct hit from the eye of the hurricane.
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Hurricane Beryl has continued to churn across the Caribbean and has caused at least  7 known deaths so far and is expected to be very close to Jamaica by midday today, Wednesday July 3.

The hurricane which was at one time rated as Category 5 has eased a little and is now rated as Category 4, but remains an extremely dangerous storm.

It has already caused extensive damage and at least 7 deaths in Grenada and St. Vincent.

The St. Kitts and Nevis and British Virgin islands have been fortunate enough to miss the severe weather this time around, but there are very likely to be more hurricanes to follow.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami put out the following forecast and discussion this morning.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is
forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later today.

The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts.

Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later
today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday.

Additionalweakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength during the next several
hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast
of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with localized amounts of 12 inches, across Jamaica through
this evening along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over
the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands tonight into
Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches with localized
amounts of 8 inches, along with at least localized flash flooding,
late Thursday through Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will
continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next
day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

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