By Anastasha Elliott
The first tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, showered light rain on the Mexican vacation resort of Acapulco and forecasters warned that the weather could get worse.
Aletta, as she is called, is expected to move over land with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour.
Last year a fierce hurricane season devastated Grenada, parts of Jamaica, Haiti and other Caribbean islands.
The 2005 season was above normal and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) there is an 80 percent chance of above normal season this year as well.
However, do not indicate a similar season like what was experienced last year.
Residents in hurricane prone areas are urged to make preparations to protect their lives and livelihoods now.
In most islands that include identifying and knowing where all hurricane shelters are located, cut or prune overhanging trees, clear away debris that can become flying missiles, store water, make use of hurricane shutters, pack emergency bags and so on.
The NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes and four to six potentially becoming ‘major’ hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher for the 2006 season.
This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995, said NOAA officials.
They said that hurricane seasons between 1995 to 2005 have averaged 15 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
NOAA classifies nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons as above normal, and seven as hyperactive.
In contrast, it said that during the preceding 1971to 1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 8.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes. One-half of these seasons were below normal, only three were above normal.
The majority of named storms and hurricanes for this year’s season are expected to form during August to October over the Atlantic Ocean.
This, NOAA said, is typical for above-normal seasons.
Historically, very active seasons have averaged 2 to 3 land-falling hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea and 2 to 4 hurricanes in the continental United States.
On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
This was not the case however in 2005, during that season the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record of 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of which were considered major.
The warning coming out of the NOAA indicates that whether an active hurricane season or below normal season is faced everyone should “prepare, prepare, prepare. One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season,” said Max Mayfield, Director of NOAA National Hurricane Center.
The north Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. Mid season updates are expected in early August, which is just prior to the peak period that span from August through to October.
For those who may hope for a near normal of below normal season NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a chance of 15% and 5% respectively of the area experiencing such luck.
Scientist at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) produced the outlook.
The names chosen for this year’s hurricane season are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.
According to the website of the Nevis Disaster Management Office disaster management entails prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and rebuilding.
As such the Nevis Disaster Management Office is in the process of implementing a Comprehensive Disaster Management strategy that involves those areas of focus.
The Nevis Island Administration June 1, the start of the 2006 hurricane season declared the day one for prayer and supplication.
As a result a number of Government officials headed by Premier of Nevis, Vance Amory and members of the public, gathered at the Charlestown Methodist Church for a thanksgiving service under the theme “Heal our Land”.
During the service Premier Amory made an address to the nation. He said that the Nevis Island Administration (NIA) through the Nevis Disaster Management Office and other agencies would take all steps necessary to minimise or protect the efforts of any national occurrence.
However the help and assistance of the public is vital. As Chairman of the Nevis Disaster Management Committee he declared to the people “We need your help! God helps those who help themselves.”
